Réunion d’urgence en Chine, les banques stoppent les crédits, les bulles sont gigantesques…

It sounds as though China’s central bank’s attempt to engineer a cooldown and end its bubble is going badly.

A research report from analyst Yuan Tuck Siew of Axia describes the carnage and confusion:

We have confirmed that banks have suspended new lending since 19 January across the country. For the seven banks we contacted in various areas of China, six said that lending has been suspended while the remaining one refused to confirm.

The suspension in lending was imposed by the authorities after an emergency meeting by the central bank’s monetary policy bureau. A few aggressive lenders have received a punitive hike in their reserves ratio. Reportedly, banks lent Rmb1.1 tn during the first two weeks of this year, in line with the extraordinary lending in the beginning of last year and way above the averaging lending pace over the past ten years. In responding to such a credit surge, the PBoC has launched more aggressive quantitative tightening than we previously have thought. We would expect lending to resume from the beginning of February, but Beijing will keep a close eye on lending activities. The State Council is watching the lending figures on a daily basis, instead of the usual monthly basis. We would not surprised if banks were imposed a monthly lending quota, as against a quarterly quota in 2008 (the hard lending quota was abandoned in late 2008).

This sudden suspension in lending has caught importers, along with many other companies, by surprise and could cause turbulence in China’s import orders. Letters of credit (LoC) suddenly became unavailable, despite previous agreements. We believe that this will inevitably lead to delays or cancellations in China’s imports. Import orders for commodities and machineries could be affected most. Some banks suggested that they would resume issuing LoC from February, but that would be too close to the Chinese New Year. The Lunar New Year is on 14 February (China will have a seven-day holiday), and many will leave for the long holiday as early as in late January, just like the Christmas holiday in the Western world.
traduction google merci vladi

Whaou, ça c’est de l’information, les autorités chinoises ont imposé aux banques de suspendre les crédits !
Résultat :

 » Cette suspension soudaine des prêts a pris les importateurs, ainsi que de nombreuses autres entreprises, par surprise et pourrait provoquer des turbulences sur les commandes d’importation de la Chine. Les lettres de crédit (LOC) sont subitement devenu indisponible, malgré les accords précédents. Nous pensons que cela mènera inévitablement à des retards ou des annulations dans les importations de la Chine. »


Dans la même idée de stabilité chinoise :

The bubble in China’s real estate is unprecedented and companies exporting for the country’s construction sector should be watched carefully, James Chanos, president and founder of Kynikos Associates, told CNBC Monday.

« We are not calling for an impending crash of China or of the Shanghai stock market, but in particular the bubble that has been blown up in real estate both commercial and residential as well as other forms of fixed asset investment in china is unprecedented, » Chanos said.

« I do see all of the signs of a credit induced real estate bubble that i think is going to be a doozy, » he added.

He said there are about 30 billion square feet of space in construction only in the commercial property sector.

If the bubble were to burst, it would hurt the building materials sectors and the commodity plays in the Western world, the sectors where demand depends on the Chinese construction market, according to Chanos.

« Looking at companies, I’d be very leery of companies who are exporting materials to China to build up this construction bubble, » he added.

>> Click on the video to listen to the full interview <<

Fixed investment is forecast to reach 60 percent of Chinese gross domestic product this year, up from around 50 percent, he said.

After World War II, the Soviet Union, Germany and Japan grew very rapidly using fixed investment, but only Germany and Japan managed to use inputs more efficiently, Chanos explained.

"In China, what we've seen is more and more fixed investment is needed for a dollar of GDP so they're getting less efficient, not more," he said.

A Chinese government researched said Monday that the country's GDP was likely to grow about 9.5 percent in 2010, largely due to strong domestic consumption and corporate investment.

"In the West, GDP growth is the residual of the free market… In China it is quite a bit of a different thing, very similar to the good old Soviet Union; GDP is a planning tool and we start with the GDP target and then figure out how it is we are going to get there," Chanos said.
traduction google

Et wé l’immobilier chinois est en pleine ébullition, toute dirigée qu’elle est, l’économie chinoise va dans le mur.

 » La bulle dans l’immobilier de la Chine est sans précédent et les entreprises exportatrices du secteur de la construction du pays doit être surveillée attentivement  »

Et par un effet boule de neige, si la chine s’effondre, le peu de croissance dont rève l’europe s’évanouira.
L’auteur de l’article dit que la Chine d’aujourd’hui lui fait penser à l’union soviétique, en tout cas ils ont les mêmes bureaux de statistiques aux ordres du pouvoir…

Sinon, on apprend que la Chine, après etre devenu le premier exportateur mondial, est maintenant le premier client du Japon, normal, les exportations japonaises vers les usa ont baissé de 40 % !

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